Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4561 at 16:06, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4561 Southwest	EUG 16:06	LAS 18:11	16%	8%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon	1h 31m Portland	PDX 07:37 → LAS 09:55AS 627	4h 35m	98%	87%
Alaska Details →	EUG 05:23 → PDX 06:25AS 3040 · flown by SkyWest	2h 37m Portland	PDX 09:02 → LAS 11:11AS 1403	5h 48m	99%	85%
United Details →	EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241	1h 14m Denver	DEN 09:51 → LAS 11:02UA 1767	6h 02m	96%	83%
United Details →	EUG 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 335	57m San Francisco	SFO 08:32 → LAS 10:16UA 1627	4h 16m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659	6h 01m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	3h 27m Seattle	SEA 11:05 → LAS 13:42DL 2880	7h 27m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	EUG 06:00 → SEA 07:08AS 2046 · flown by Horizon	3h 42m Seattle	SEA 10:50 → LAS 13:11AS 612	7h 11m	100%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON