Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2762 United	EUG 14:16	ORD 20:29	32%	14%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Eugene). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241	58m Denver	DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329	6h 15m	94%	82%
Alaska Details →	EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon	54m Portland	PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13AS 324	5h 53m	98%	80%
Alaska Details →	EUG 06:00 → SEA 07:08AS 2046 · flown by Horizon	1h 26m Seattle	SEA 08:34 → ORD 14:46AS 265	6h 46m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	2h 57m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → ORD 16:43DL 637	8h 28m	99%	71%
United Details →	EUG 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 335	2h 37m San Francisco	SFO 10:12 → ORD 16:39UA 2827	8h 39m	98%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON