Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 4–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3040 EUG 05:23 → PDX 06:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 3041 EUG 16:00 → PDX 16:51 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3040 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 05:23	PDX 06:25	4%	3%	0.9%	94%
OO 3049 SkyWest	EUG 12:35	PDX 13:37	11%	7%	0.6%	no record
AS 3041 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 16:00	PDX 16:51	12%	6%	0.6%	87%
AS 2053 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	EUG 05:20	PDX 06:06	2%	2%	0.0%	98%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON