tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
MQ 3636 Envoy EUG 06:58 PHX 09:42 9% 4% 0.6% no record
MQ 3747 Envoy EUG 13:38 PHX 16:22 14% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon 54m Portland PDX 07:00 → PHX 09:49AS 1349 4h 29m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest 2h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 6h 12m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241 1h 13m Denver DEN 09:50 → PHX 10:55UA 1782 5h 55m 96% 83%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2073 · flown by Horizon 2h 51m Seattle SEA 13:44 → PHX 16:45AS 700 7h 00m 100% 75%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SEA 07:08AS 2046 · flown by Horizon 2h 41m Seattle SEA 09:49 → PHX 12:36AS 449 6h 36m 100% 73%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2179 · flown by Horizon 3h 55m Seattle SEA 14:48 → PHX 17:34AS 744 7h 49m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest 47m Seattle SEA 08:25 → PHX 11:20DL 2419 5h 05m 82% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2073 · flown by Horizon 1h 01m Seattle SEA 11:54 → PHX 14:40AS 417 4h 55m 69% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON