tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 23–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3009 SkyWest EUG 07:06 SAN 09:40 23% 11% 0.7% no record
WN 556 Southwest EUG 13:11 SAN 15:35 24% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 6h 08m 99% 81%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 05:23 → PDX 06:25AS 3040 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Portland PDX 09:12 → SAN 11:40AS 721 6h 17m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241 2h 38m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 7h 41m 98% 75%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon 1h 26m Portland PDX 07:32 → SAN 10:05AS 577 4h 45m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest 2h 07m Seattle SEA 09:45 → SAN 12:39DL 2533 6h 24m 97% 74%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2179 · flown by Horizon 3h 24m Seattle SEA 14:17 → SAN 16:57AS 765 7h 12m 100% 69%
UnitedDetails → EUG 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 335 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → SAN 11:51UA 2177 5h 51m 98% 68%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SEA 07:08AS 2046 · flown by Horizon 1h 28m Seattle SEA 08:36 → SAN 11:16AS 650 5h 16m 98% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON