Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 335 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Safest bet that day UA 335 EUG 06:00 → SFO 07:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OO 5503 EUG 16:03 → SFO 17:45 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 335 United Flight history →	EUG 06:00	SFO 07:35	5%	3%	0.7%	95%
OO 4734 SkyWest	EUG 11:29	SFO 13:12	31%	16%	1.1%	no record
OO 5503 SkyWest	EUG 16:03	SFO 17:45	31%	15%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON