Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3995 at 11:01, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3995 Southwest	EUG 11:01	SJC 12:43	6%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon	1h 09m Portland	PDX 07:15 → SJC 09:09AS 2080 · flown by Horizon	3h 49m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	6h 35m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	52m Seattle	SEA 08:30 → SJC 10:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	4h 40m	87%	77%
Alaska Details →	EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2073 · flown by Horizon	2h 46m Seattle	SEA 13:39 → SJC 15:44AS 657	5h 59m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	EUG 06:00 → SEA 07:08AS 2046 · flown by Horizon	3h 45m Seattle	SEA 10:53 → SJC 12:58AS 658	6h 58m	100%	73%
Alaska Details →	EUG 16:00 → PDX 16:51AS 3041 · flown by SkyWest	49m Portland	PDX 17:40 → SJC 19:32AS 2113 · flown by Horizon	3h 32m	80%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON