Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1899 at 05:11, with a 2% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1899 Southwest	EUG 05:11	SMF 06:42	2%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 16m	99%	90%
Alaska Details →	EUG 05:23 → PDX 06:25AS 3040 · flown by SkyWest	2h 53m Portland	PDX 09:18 → SMF 10:54AS 1709	5h 31m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	2h 32m Seattle	SEA 10:10 → SMF 12:17DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest	6h 02m	98%	86%
Alaska Details →	EUG 06:00 → SEA 07:08AS 2046 · flown by Horizon	2h 45m Seattle	SEA 09:53 → SMF 11:42AS 763	5h 42m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2073 · flown by Horizon	1h 00m Seattle	SEA 11:53 → SMF 13:41AS 288	3h 56m	69%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON