Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 09:10, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Anchorage on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	EWR 09:10 → SEA 12:02AS 373	3h 56m Seattle	SEA 15:58 → ANC 18:37AS 99	13h 27m	100%	74%
United Details →	EWR 10:24 → ORD 12:06UA 1525	3h 59m Chicago	ORD 16:05 → ANC 19:48UA 461	13h 24m	98%	73%
Alaska Details →	EWR 07:25 → SEA 10:35AS 299	2h 46m Seattle	SEA 13:21 → ANC 16:08AS 1440	12h 43m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:00 → MSP 17:08DL 2895	1h 02m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377	10h 00m	79%	63%
Alaska Details →	EWR 17:05 → PDX 20:17AS 290	1h 13m Portland	PDX 21:30 → ANC 00:25 +1AS 2192 · flown by Horizon	11h 20m	78%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON