Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2353 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 2353 EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 1991 EWR 17:12 → ATL 19:46 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2353 Delta Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ATL 08:15	7%	4%	1.0%	85%
UA 1012 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ATL 08:20	7%	3%	1.0%	92%
DL 1673 Delta Flight history →	EWR 07:05	ATL 09:20	10%	5%	1.0%	87%
DL 2365 Delta Flight history →	EWR 08:30	ATL 10:51	12%	5%	0.9%	84%
DL 2397 Delta Flight history →	EWR 12:00	ATL 14:30	14%	6%	0.9%	81%
DL 2325 Delta Flight history →	EWR 10:31	ATL 12:53	15%	5%	0.9%	82%
UA 2669 United Flight history →	EWR 08:45	ATL 11:08	15%	7%	1.0%	78%
UA 1746 United	EWR 11:23	ATL 13:42	18%	8%	0.8%	no record
DL 2401 Delta Flight history →	EWR 13:29	ATL 16:00	18%	7%	0.8%	80%
F9 4601 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 11:28	ATL 13:52	23%	10%	1.3%	75%
DL 2322 Delta Flight history →	EWR 16:29	ATL 19:14	25%	13%	0.8%	75%
UA 1848 United Flight history →	EWR 15:57	ATL 18:41	27%	16%	0.8%	76%
DL 2312 Delta Flight history →	EWR 15:21	ATL 17:54	29%	12%	0.9%	70%
UA 2304 United Flight history →	EWR 16:39	ATL 19:00	30%	16%	0.8%	100%worse than usual
DL 2340 Delta Flight history →	EWR 19:05	ATL 21:19	35%	14%	1.1%	94%worse than usual
UA 1991 United Flight history →	EWR 17:12	ATL 19:46	38%	22%	0.9%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON