Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2110 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 2110 EWR 07:00 → AUS 09:46 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 2213 EWR 17:36 → AUS 20:42 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2110 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	AUS 09:46	8%	3%	1.2%	96%
UA 1238 United	EWR 09:46	AUS 12:51	16%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 2289 United Flight history →	EWR 15:10	AUS 18:11	27%	14%	0.8%	78%
UA 1409 United	EWR 20:40	AUS 23:30	33%	15%	0.8%	no record
UA 1032 United	EWR 19:13	AUS 22:21	34%	17%	0.9%	no record
UA 2213 United	EWR 17:36	AUS 20:42	36%	19%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON