Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1428 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 1428 EWR 06:52 → BNA 08:16 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest YX 3454 EWR 19:28 → BNA 20:49 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1428 United Flight history →	EWR 06:52	BNA 08:16	6%	3%	1.2%	89%
UA 2776 United	EWR 10:44	BNA 12:01	19%	7%	0.9%	no record
UA 1608 United Flight history →	EWR 13:18	BNA 14:36	21%	9%	0.9%	72%
UA 2454 United Flight history →	EWR 16:05	BNA 17:46	23%	12%	0.9%	67%
UA 695 United	EWR 14:53	BNA 16:10	25%	11%	1.0%	no record
YX 3454 Republic	EWR 19:28	BNA 20:49	35%	10%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON