tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via Charlotte, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Buffalo on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 3h 24m Charlotte CLT 10:21 → BUF 12:16AA 1203 7h 16m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 7h 33m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050 8h 10m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 55m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 5h 11m 91% 82%
DeltaDetails → EWR 11:47 → MSP 13:45DL 2864 1h 37m Minneapolis MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749 6h 37m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → EWR 09:20 → ORD 11:04UA 2290 2h 55m Chicago ORD 13:59 → BUF 16:40UA 580 7h 20m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → EWR 13:10 → ORD 14:53UA 2053 3h 07m Chicago ORD 18:00 → BUF 20:41UA 1335 7h 31m 96% 73%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530 2h 43m Chicago ORD 10:25 → BUF 13:13UA 4382 · flown by GoJet 7h 13m 98% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → EWR 15:28 → FLL 18:30B6 685 1h 23m Fort Lauderdale FLL 19:53 → BUF 23:05B6 866 7h 37m 73% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON