tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 7h 01m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596 2h 25m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 5h 47m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 1h 17m Charlotte CLT 08:14 → BWI 09:59AA 1216 4h 59m 94% 86%
DeltaDetails → EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566 3h 22m Detroit DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480 6h 46m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 7h 23m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575 2h 52m Charlotte CLT 12:27 → BWI 14:10AA 2733 6h 40m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530 3h 09m Chicago ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653 7h 57m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:00 → MSP 17:08DL 2895 2h 37m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918 8h 13m 95% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → EWR 13:34 → CLT 15:25AA 1697 46m Charlotte CLT 16:11 → BWI 17:54AA 3121 4h 20m 67% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON