tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 297 at 07:39, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 297 United Flight history → EWR 07:39 BZN 10:26 12% 3% 1.2% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 2h 45m Minneapolis MSP 10:58 → BZN 12:31DL 2946 8h 16m 97% 91%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:45 → DEN 10:01UA 1758 1h 54m Denver DEN 11:55 → BZN 13:55UA 741 8h 10m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 2h 45m Charlotte CLT 09:42 → BZN 12:23AA 2415 9h 23m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406 9h 11m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → LAX 08:53UA 2434 3h 57m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 12h 24m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530 1h 28m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 44m 95% 85%
AmericanDetails → EWR 06:44 → ORD 08:15AA 3027 2h 10m Chicago ORD 10:25 → BZN 13:06AA 1080 8h 22m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → EWR 10:00 → DEN 12:18UA 2455 1h 26m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 7h 33m 92% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 09:15 → LAX 11:53UA 2692 57m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 9h 09m 74% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON