Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1951 at 07:26 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–40%.

Safest bet that day UA 1951 EWR 07:26 → CLE 09:04 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1611 EWR 18:35 → CLE 20:24 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1951 United	EWR 07:26	CLE 09:04	13%	4%	1.8%	no record
UA 1833 United Flight history →	EWR 08:30	CLE 10:08	14%	5%	1.9%	90%
YX 3701 Republic	EWR 14:30	CLE 16:13	20%	6%	1.6%	no record
UA 2172 United Flight history →	EWR 16:26	CLE 18:12	32%	14%	1.5%	79%worse than usual
UA 2398 United Flight history →	EWR 19:55	CLE 21:45	38%	18%	1.2%	70%
UA 1611 United Flight history →	EWR 18:35	CLE 20:24	40%	18%	1.2%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON