Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1113 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 1113 EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1168 EWR 19:07 → CLT 20:56 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1113 American Flight history →	EWR 05:00	CLT 06:57	8%	3%	1.3%	92%
AA 2505 American Flight history →	EWR 06:00	CLT 08:01	8%	3%	1.2%	94%
YX 3635 Republic	EWR 07:01	CLT 08:53	12%	3%	1.6%	no record
AA 1575 American Flight history →	EWR 07:30	CLT 09:35	15%	4%	1.3%	85%
YX 3547 Republic	EWR 13:13	CLT 15:26	17%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 3504 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 10:03	CLT 12:07	17%	4%	1.4%	84%
YX 3493 Republic	EWR 10:24	CLT 12:17	18%	3%	1.4%	no record
UA 3533 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 15:01	CLT 17:10	23%	8%	1.4%	81%
AA 1697 American Flight history →	EWR 13:34	CLT 15:25	25%	7%	1.3%	84%
AA 2420 American	EWR 17:30	CLT 19:22	42%	19%	1.3%	no record
UA 1168 United	EWR 19:07	CLT 20:56	43%	19%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON