Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 3641 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 3641 EWR 08:45 → CMH 10:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 3481 EWR 18:55 → CMH 20:57 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3641 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:45	CMH 10:40	12%	3%	2.0%	88%
UA 3638 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 10:38	CMH 12:33	13%	3%	1.3%	89%
UA 2057 United	EWR 14:00	CMH 15:46	23%	10%	1.0%	no record
UA 3692 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 20:48	CMH 22:52	26%	7%	1.6%	79%
UA 3545 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 17:57	CMH 19:59	29%	9%	1.7%	79%
UA 3481 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 18:55	CMH 20:57	30%	9%	1.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON