Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 3417 at 08:24 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 3417 EWR 08:24 → CVG 10:36 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest YX 3623 EWR 18:13 → CVG 20:18 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3417 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:24	CVG 10:36	14%	3%	2.0%	83%
UA 3455 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 13:54	CVG 15:58	18%	4%	1.3%	85%
G4 364 Allegiant	EWR 10:01	CVG 11:56	31%	9%	1.0%	no record
YX 3623 Republic	EWR 18:13	CVG 20:18	34%	10%	1.5%	no record
DL 5026 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 09:45	CVG 11:53	14%	5%	1.4%	86%
DL 5065 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 20:15	CVG 22:27	27%	15%	8.8%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON