Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Dallas on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	6h 24m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	7h 33m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	8h 04m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	8h 23m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON