Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 670 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 670 EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 1197 EWR 17:12 → DEN 19:45 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 670 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	DEN 08:45	9%	2%	0.8%	95%
UA 1758 United Flight history →	EWR 07:45	DEN 10:01	13%	3%	0.7%	95%
UA 1999 United Flight history →	EWR 11:55	DEN 14:13	16%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 2455 United Flight history →	EWR 10:00	DEN 12:18	18%	5%	0.6%	83%
UA 2444 United	EWR 14:38	DEN 16:52	25%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 2120 United Flight history →	EWR 14:40	DEN 16:58	25%	10%	0.6%	80%
UA 1792 United Flight history →	EWR 20:59	DEN 23:28	33%	11%	0.6%	72%
UA 1729 United	EWR 15:45	DEN 18:03	36%	13%	0.6%	no record
UA 407 United Flight history →	EWR 18:49	DEN 21:18	37%	14%	0.6%	69%
UA 1197 United Flight history →	EWR 17:12	DEN 19:45	39%	15%	0.6%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	50m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	5h 47m	91%	80%
United Details →	EWR 08:30 → CLE 10:08UA 1833	1h 02m Cleveland	CLE 11:10 → DEN 12:26UA 2246	5h 56m	87%	79%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	53m Dulles	IAD 08:15 → DEN 10:06UA 797	6h 06m	90%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON