Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2728 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 2728 EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 2840 EWR 17:58 → DFW 20:29 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2728 American Flight history →	EWR 05:51	DFW 08:40	7%	4%	1.8%	95%
UA 1494 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	DFW 09:28	10%	4%	1.2%	93%
AA 1303 American Flight history →	EWR 08:00	DFW 10:51	14%	7%	1.5%	85%
AA 1796 American Flight history →	EWR 12:23	DFW 15:01	18%	9%	1.2%	75%
UA 1396 United	EWR 13:05	DFW 15:35	18%	9%	0.9%	no record
F9 2471 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 13:35	DFW 16:27	23%	9%	1.1%	74%
UA 1277 United	EWR 21:02	DFW 23:49	25%	13%	0.9%	no record
UA 1590 United Flight history →	EWR 15:30	DFW 18:28	26%	14%	0.9%	71%
AA 1810 American Flight history →	EWR 17:10	DFW 20:10	37%	18%	1.5%	47%
UA 2840 United	EWR 17:58	DFW 20:29	43%	20%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON