Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Key West on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 3606 Republic	EWR 09:59	EYW 13:23	25%	4%	1.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 17:58 → EYW 19:56DL 2815	7h 56m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:30 → EYW 13:23DL 1472	7h 23m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → EYW 17:23DL 2168	6h 52m	97%	84%
American Details →	EWR 05:31 → MIA 08:45AA 1196	3h 46m Miami	MIA 12:31 → EYW 13:39AA 3577 · flown by Envoy	8h 08m	99%	83%
American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505	3h 05m Charlotte	CLT 11:06 → EYW 13:36AA 1816	7h 36m	97%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON