Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: B6 1505 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40%.

Safest bet that day B6 1505 EWR 06:00 → FLL 09:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest UA 2096 EWR 17:45 → FLL 20:41 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1505 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 06:00	FLL 09:00	11%	4%	1.4%	82%
UA 1364 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	FLL 10:05	13%	4%	1.2%	92%
UA 2151 United	EWR 08:42	FLL 11:43	21%	7%	1.2%	no record
B6 105 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 08:00	FLL 11:04	22%	8%	1.6%	72%
UA 1998 United	EWR 10:19	FLL 13:14	24%	8%	1.0%	no record
UA 651 United Flight history →	EWR 13:10	FLL 16:20	25%	9%	1.1%	81%
UA 2759 United	EWR 11:53	FLL 14:49	26%	10%	1.0%	no record
B6 685 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 15:28	FLL 18:30	38%	17%	1.6%	42%
UA 435 United	EWR 19:31	FLL 22:25	40%	17%	1.0%	no record
UA 2096 United	EWR 17:45	FLL 20:41	40%	17%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON