Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 3576 at 16:21, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3576 EWR 16:21 → GSO 18:08 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3576 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:21	GSO 18:08	22%	6%	1.0%	79%
UA 4489 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 12:09	GSO 13:56	17%	10%	6.2%	83%
UA 4509 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 17:27	GSO 19:23	34%	17%	4.6%	66%
UA 4520 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 21:57	GSO 23:42	40%	26%	11.5%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON