Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 3604 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:30	GSP 10:37	18%	3%	2.0%	84%
UA 3584 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:59	GSP 19:08	25%	8%	2.0%	86%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greenville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505	3h 06m Charlotte	CLT 11:07 → GSP 12:14AA 5802 · flown by Piedmont	6h 14m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 11:16 → GSP 12:14DL 1725	6h 14m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 13:07 → GSP 14:01DL 1273	6h 56m	100%	89%
American Details →	EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113	2h 08m Charlotte	CLT 09:05 → GSP 10:12AA 5799 · flown by Piedmont	5h 12m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → GSP 18:55DL 1021	6h 55m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 15:07 → GSP 16:07DL 3095	5h 36m	96%	83%
American Details →	EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575	3h 30m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → GSP 14:07AA 5805 · flown by Piedmont	6h 37m	98%	83%
American Details →	EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40AA 2728	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:41 → GSP 13:09AA 3986 · flown by Envoy	7h 18m	93%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	EWR 15:40 → IAH 18:46UA 2815	1h 04m Houston	IAH 19:50 → GSP 23:19UA 4033 · flown by Mesa	7h 39m	73%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON