Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1366 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 1366 EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 2677 EWR 19:29 → IAD 21:00 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1366 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	IAD 07:22	6%	3%	1.4%	96%
UA 1618 United	EWR 10:00	IAD 11:20	20%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 2301 United	EWR 15:08	IAD 16:46	31%	12%	0.9%	no record
UA 2677 United Flight history →	EWR 19:29	IAD 21:00	41%	19%	0.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON