Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 492 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 492 EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2127 EWR 19:51 → IAH 22:23 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 492 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	IAH 08:41	7%	2%	0.8%	92%
UA 2438 United Flight history →	EWR 07:05	IAH 09:50	11%	4%	0.8%	94%
UA 332 United Flight history →	EWR 07:59	IAH 10:44	13%	4%	0.8%	87%
UA 2204 United Flight history →	EWR 12:36	IAH 15:34	14%	5%	0.6%	89%
UA 556 United Flight history →	EWR 10:53	IAH 13:38	18%	5%	0.6%	77%
UA 4201 United	EWR 13:12	IAH 16:13	18%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1830 United	EWR 13:49	IAH 16:22	22%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 2815 United Flight history →	EWR 15:40	IAH 18:46	29%	13%	0.6%	69%
UA 2425 United Flight history →	EWR 20:50	IAH 23:43	30%	10%	0.7%	75%
UA 2782 United Flight history →	EWR 17:54	IAH 20:55	33%	15%	0.7%	69%
UA 2127 United Flight history →	EWR 19:51	IAH 22:23	37%	14%	0.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON