Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:05, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Wilmington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → ILM 13:43DL 731	6h 38m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 16:28 → ILM 18:03DL 1292	7h 32m	99%	88%
American Details →	EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575	2h 38m Charlotte	CLT 12:13 → ILM 13:19AA 5416 · flown by PSA	5h 49m	97%	84%
American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505	3h 14m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → ILM 12:33AA 5822 · flown by Piedmont	6h 33m	97%	83%
American Details →	EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15AA 3185	1h 34m Chicago	ORD 08:49 → ILM 12:12AA 3970 · flown by Envoy	6h 42m	92%	79%
American Details →	EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113	2h 23m Charlotte	CLT 09:20 → ILM 10:38AA 5820 · flown by Piedmont	5h 38m	97%	79%
American Details →	EWR 13:34 → CLT 15:25AA 1697	1h 50m Charlotte	CLT 17:15 → ILM 18:27AA 2105	4h 53m	92%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	EWR 13:34 → CLT 15:25AA 1697	59m Charlotte	CLT 16:24 → ILM 17:41AA 6116 · flown by Piedmont	4h 07m	75%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON