Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 3683 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 3683 EWR 06:15 → IND 08:23 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 3447 EWR 19:41 → IND 21:55 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3683 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 06:15	IND 08:23	7%	2%	1.9%	90%
UA 3446 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 11:54	IND 14:07	17%	4%	1.2%	87%
UA 3669 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 09:52	IND 12:05	18%	3%	1.9%	88%
UA 3443 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 15:47	IND 18:06	30%	9%	1.1%	85%worse than usual
UA 3519 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 18:29	IND 20:57	33%	10%	1.2%	81%worse than usual
UA 3447 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 19:41	IND 21:55	35%	9%	1.3%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON