tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Jackson on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 2 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:45 → DEN 10:01UA 1758 3h 54m Denver DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537 9h 40m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670 2h 30m Denver DEN 11:15 → JAC 12:46UA 2193 8h 16m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 1h 57m Charlotte CLT 08:54 → JAC 11:11AA 1175 8h 11m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 18:10 → JAC 20:04DL 315 10h 04m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → LAX 08:53UA 2434 1h 32m Los Angeles LAX 10:25 → JAC 13:54UA 1041 9h 54m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 57m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 7h 00m 85% 77%
UnitedDetails → EWR 11:55 → DEN 14:13UA 1999 2h 07m Denver DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200 7h 58m 93% 77%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530 1h 21m Chicago ORD 09:03 → JAC 11:19UA 2176 7h 19m 95% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:00 → LAX 09:37UA 2445 48m Los Angeles LAX 10:25 → JAC 13:54UA 1041 8h 54m 69% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON