Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2147 at 06:23 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 2147 EWR 06:23 → LAS 09:05 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1539 EWR 16:30 → LAS 18:47 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2147 United	EWR 06:23	LAS 09:05	10%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 1631 United Flight history →	EWR 09:00	LAS 11:28	19%	5%	1.0%	90%
UA 446 United Flight history →	EWR 10:54	LAS 13:21	20%	6%	0.8%	82%
UA 1864 United Flight history →	EWR 12:25	LAS 14:53	21%	8%	0.9%	86%
UA 2828 United	EWR 09:46	LAS 12:24	22%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 2387 United Flight history →	EWR 14:22	LAS 16:42	30%	12%	0.8%	78%
UA 1539 United	EWR 16:30	LAS 18:47	32%	14%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 31m Dulles	IAD 08:53 → LAS 10:54UA 1323	7h 54m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 16m	95%	84%
United Details →	EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670	1h 06m Denver	DEN 09:51 → LAS 11:02UA 1767	7h 32m	94%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON