Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2434 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 2434 EWR 06:00 → LAX 08:53 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest UA 353 EWR 18:45 → LAX 21:36 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2434 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	LAX 08:53	11%	3%	1.0%	79%
UA 2445 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	LAX 09:37	19%	4%	1.0%	81%
B6 1573 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 07:00	LAX 09:49	19%	4%	1.3%	76%
UA 2679 United Flight history →	EWR 10:45	LAX 13:41	21%	6%	0.8%	78%
UA 212 United Flight history →	EWR 12:00	LAX 14:38	21%	8%	0.7%	78%
UA 2191 United Flight history →	EWR 14:15	LAX 17:13	23%	10%	0.7%	78%
UA 2692 United Flight history →	EWR 09:15	LAX 11:53	23%	6%	0.9%	69%
UA 1355 United	EWR 16:30	LAX 19:25	26%	11%	0.7%	no record
UA 2238 United Flight history →	EWR 16:00	LAX 18:42	29%	11%	0.7%	70%
AS 287 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 19:29	LAX 22:40	31%	12%	0.9%	74%
UA 2641 United Flight history →	EWR 17:30	LAX 20:40	34%	15%	0.7%	72%
UA 345 United	EWR 20:18	LAX 23:15	35%	15%	0.8%	no record
UA 353 United Flight history →	EWR 18:45	LAX 21:36	39%	15%	0.8%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670	1h 17m Denver	DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405	8h 04m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	7h 55m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	7h 45m	93%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON