tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 3436 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 14:47 MCI 17:02 23% 6% 1.1% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 1h 49m Minneapolis MSP 10:02 → MCI 11:35DL 1349 6h 20m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908 6h 11m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 1h 54m Charlotte CLT 08:51 → MCI 10:25AA 2946 6h 25m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41UA 492 3h 24m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 9h 15m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → MCI 12:18DL 2747 6h 13m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43UA 2488 2h 57m Chicago ORD 12:40 → MCI 14:20UA 561 7h 21m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 6h 59m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575 2h 50m Charlotte CLT 12:25 → MCI 13:50AA 3233 7h 20m 97% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:40 → DEN 16:58UA 2120 57m Denver DEN 17:55 → MCI 20:43UA 2793 7h 03m 72% 57%
DeltaDetails → EWR 16:50 → DTW 18:51DL 2573 58m Detroit DTW 19:49 → MCI 20:49DL 1321 4h 59m 67% 56%
UnitedDetails → EWR 13:10 → ORD 14:53UA 2053 59m Chicago ORD 15:52 → MCI 17:36UA 664 5h 26m 71% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON