Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 788 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–45%.

Safest bet that day UA 788 EWR 06:30 → MCO 09:16 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 1827 EWR 20:06 → MCO 22:40 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 788 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	MCO 09:16	7%	2%	1.0%	96%
B6 927 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 06:02	MCO 08:39	9%	3%	2.1%	90%
UA 411 United Flight history →	EWR 07:54	MCO 10:58	10%	4%	1.0%	98%
F9 1659 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 05:54	MCO 08:39	12%	4%	1.6%	83%
UA 2396 United Flight history →	EWR 11:10	MCO 14:03	17%	7%	0.7%	87%
UA 486 United	EWR 09:00	MCO 11:37	17%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 1739 United Flight history →	EWR 10:01	MCO 12:54	17%	6%	0.7%	76%
UA 2215 United Flight history →	EWR 13:03	MCO 15:54	21%	9%	1.3%	81%
UA 2345 United	EWR 14:23	MCO 17:26	25%	15%	3.4%	no record
B6 127 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 13:32	MCO 16:07	27%	12%	2.2%	75%
UA 1900 United Flight history →	EWR 16:55	MCO 19:56	29%	17%	0.9%	77%
UA 1190 United Flight history →	EWR 20:30	MCO 23:32	30%	16%	0.9%	73%
UA 1268 United Flight history →	EWR 15:16	MCO 17:56	33%	15%	2.4%	79%worse than usual
UA 1863 United	EWR 18:58	MCO 21:35	40%	22%	1.0%	no record
B6 1827 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 20:06	MCO 22:40	45%	21%	1.7%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON