Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 3650 at 13:29, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 3650 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 13:29	MEM 15:25	18%	5%	1.4%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 27m	99%	89%
American Details →	EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113	3h 18m Charlotte	CLT 10:15 → MEM 11:09AA 1790	7h 09m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	5h 32m	97%	86%
United Details →	EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670	2h 07m Denver	DEN 10:52 → MEM 14:18UA 2789	8h 48m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:07DL 1681	7h 36m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → MEM 14:15DL 733	6h 45m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	57m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	6h 13m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	58m Detroit	DTW 08:48 → MEM 09:47DL 1627	4h 47m	93%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	EWR 16:29 → ATL 19:14DL 2322	57m Atlanta	ATL 20:11 → MEM 20:34DL 3020	5h 05m	74%	63%
United Details →	EWR 07:45 → DEN 10:01UA 1758	51m Denver	DEN 10:52 → MEM 14:18UA 2789	7h 33m	42%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON