Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1196 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 1196 EWR 05:31 → MIA 08:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 3016 EWR 18:33 → MIA 21:31 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1196 American Flight history →	EWR 05:31	MIA 08:45	8%	3%	1.6%	95%
UA 1135 United	EWR 07:00	MIA 09:59	16%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 1152 American Flight history →	EWR 08:00	MIA 11:10	19%	5%	1.7%	93%worse than usual
UA 2785 United Flight history →	EWR 09:00	MIA 11:59	22%	6%	1.2%	97%worse than usual
AA 1801 American Flight history →	EWR 12:34	MIA 15:45	25%	9%	1.4%	82%
UA 2295 United Flight history →	EWR 11:31	MIA 14:38	28%	9%	1.2%	81%
UA 791 United	EWR 20:42	MIA 00:01	37%	15%	1.6%	no record
UA 1498 United	EWR 15:38	MIA 18:35	42%	18%	1.1%	no record
AA 3016 American	EWR 18:33	MIA 21:31	44%	21%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON