Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 3697 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:47	MKE 10:11	15%	4%	2.2%	88%
UA 3562 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:47	MKE 18:26	24%	9%	1.8%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → MKE 13:50DL 1246	7h 45m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 10:51 → MKE 11:53DL 1151	6h 53m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → MKE 11:17DL 561	6h 02m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 14:05 → MKE 15:04DL 2152	7h 34m	98%	87%
United Details →	EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670	1h 12m Denver	DEN 09:57 → MKE 13:24UA 1836	7h 54m	96%	85%
American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505	3h 01m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MKE 12:13AA 3193	7h 13m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → MKE 17:40DL 1206	6h 40m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 19:48 → MKE 20:54DL 2388	6h 33m	90%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	EWR 16:50 → DTW 18:51DL 2573	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 20:00 → MKE 20:20DL 3724 · flown by SkyWest	4h 30m	74%	60%
United Details →	EWR 14:45 → ORD 16:28UA 2788	1h 17m Chicago	ORD 17:45 → MKE 18:48UA 5555 · flown by SkyWest	5h 03m	74%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON