tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: YX 3712 at 08:46 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3712 Republic EWR 08:46 MSN 10:20 8% 2% 0.7% no record
UA 3620 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 18:30 MSN 20:07 26% 8% 0.9% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:01 → DEN 08:17UA 670 1h 59m Denver DEN 10:16 → MSN 13:42UA 2368 8h 41m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 1h 59m Minneapolis MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest 6h 04m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 09:20 → MSN 10:22DL 2681 5h 22m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43UA 2488 3h 16m Chicago ORD 12:59 → MSN 14:01UA 2349 7h 02m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → EWR 09:30 → BOS 10:54DL 5764 · flown by Republic 2h 14m Boston BOS 13:08 → MSN 15:03DL 5603 · flown by Republic 6h 33m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 15:21 → MSN 16:30DL 2599 6h 59m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → EWR 11:47 → MSP 13:45DL 2864 3h 20m Minneapolis MSP 17:05 → MSN 18:18DL 5331 · flown by Endeavor 7h 31m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → EWR 06:44 → ORD 08:15AA 3027 3h 26m Chicago ORD 11:41 → MSN 12:48AA 6256 · flown by SkyWest 7h 04m 99% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON