Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1641 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 1641 EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2866 EWR 18:45 → MSP 21:00 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1641 Delta Flight history →	EWR 06:15	MSP 08:13	5%	3%	1.2%	89%
UA 283 United	EWR 07:05	MSP 08:59	9%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 2864 Delta Flight history →	EWR 11:47	MSP 13:45	15%	5%	0.9%	82%
DL 2895 Delta Flight history →	EWR 15:00	MSP 17:08	22%	10%	0.9%	78%
UA 424 United	EWR 14:10	MSP 16:11	26%	10%	0.8%	no record
DL 2866 Delta Flight history →	EWR 18:45	MSP 21:00	32%	16%	1.0%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON