Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2468 at 12:33 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2468 EWR 12:33 → MSY 14:44 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 782 EWR 15:43 → MSY 17:58 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2468 United Flight history →	EWR 12:33	MSY 14:44	16%	7%	0.7%	83%
UA 1527 United Flight history →	EWR 08:30	MSY 10:32	17%	5%	0.9%	74%
UA 782 United Flight history →	EWR 15:43	MSY 17:58	28%	14%	0.7%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON