Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1067 at 07:51 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1067 EWR 07:51 → MYR 10:03 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 3589 EWR 15:55 → MYR 18:03 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1067 United	EWR 07:51	MYR 10:03	12%	5%	0.9%	no record
YX 3694 Republic	EWR 09:51	MYR 12:02	14%	3%	1.4%	no record
UA 3589 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 15:55	MYR 18:03	28%	7%	1.2%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON