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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 9h 17m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 94% 83%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 1h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 11:17 → ONT 12:12DL 1173 7h 57m 89% 83%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40AA 2728 3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:15 → ONT 13:42AA 2635 10h 51m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → EWR 10:55 → PHX 13:17AA 2825 3h 39m Phoenix PHX 16:56 → ONT 18:26AA 1666 10h 31m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 30m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:15 → PHX 09:28AA 1282 1h 28m Phoenix PHX 10:56 → ONT 12:29AA 2661 8h 14m 90% 77%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → SFO 09:09UA 2115 1h 31m San Francisco SFO 10:40 → ONT 12:12UA 2661 9h 12m 96% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → EWR 07:25 → SEA 10:35AS 299 53m Seattle SEA 11:28 → ONT 14:01AS 571 9h 36m 70% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON