Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3185 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–50%.

Safest bet that day AA 3185 EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1691 EWR 17:23 → ORD 18:57 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3185 American Flight history →	EWR 05:30	ORD 07:15	8%	4%	3.8%	88%
UA 530 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ORD 07:42	9%	3%	1.7%	92%
AA 3027 American Flight history →	EWR 06:44	ORD 08:15	12%	5%	2.9%	87%
UA 2488 United Flight history →	EWR 07:59	ORD 09:43	15%	5%	1.4%	88%
UA 2754 United	EWR 07:17	ORD 08:44	17%	5%	1.6%	no record
UA 1525 United Flight history →	EWR 10:24	ORD 12:06	20%	7%	1.0%	79%
UA 2290 United Flight history →	EWR 09:20	ORD 11:04	21%	6%	1.2%	83%
AA 752 American	EWR 10:45	ORD 12:15	24%	8%	2.1%	no record
UA 1439 United	EWR 11:10	ORD 12:37	25%	8%	1.1%	no record
UA 2053 United Flight history →	EWR 13:10	ORD 14:53	27%	11%	1.3%	77%
AA 2416 American	EWR 14:18	ORD 15:51	31%	15%	2.3%	no record
UA 2788 United Flight history →	EWR 14:45	ORD 16:28	36%	14%	1.2%	50%
UA 546 United Flight history →	EWR 20:19	ORD 22:06	39%	14%	1.0%	69%
UA 1871 United	EWR 20:40	ORD 22:10	41%	15%	1.0%	no record
UA 661 United Flight history →	EWR 16:45	ORD 18:34	43%	17%	1.2%	50%
UA 254 United Flight history →	EWR 18:15	ORD 20:10	47%	21%	1.1%	44%
AA 1691 American Flight history →	EWR 17:23	ORD 18:57	50%	24%	2.5%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON