tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:05, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Norfolk on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:28 → ORF 14:16DL 2925 7h 11m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 09:46 → ORF 11:28DL 2755 5h 28m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596 2h 13m Detroit DTW 10:03 → ORF 11:58DL 3066 5h 58m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101 7h 20m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → EWR 13:29 → ATL 16:00DL 2401 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → ORF 21:42DL 2984 8h 13m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 1h 17m Charlotte CLT 08:14 → ORF 09:40AA 2072 4h 40m 94% 83%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43UA 2488 2h 33m Chicago ORD 12:16 → ORF 15:41UA 2807 7h 42m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:54DL 1346 6h 54m 98% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON