Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1613 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 1613 EWR 06:30 → PDX 09:25 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 560 EWR 18:29 → PDX 21:32 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1613 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	PDX 09:25	9%	2%	0.9%	93%
AS 643 Alaska	EWR 06:55	PDX 09:43	14%	2%	1.3%	no record
AS 290 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 17:05	PDX 20:17	31%	10%	0.8%	74%
UA 560 United Flight history →	EWR 18:29	PDX 21:32	33%	14%	0.7%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	52m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → PDX 10:41DL 2415	7h 26m	93%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	1h 04m Detroit	DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171	7h 36m	93%	83%
United Details →	EWR 07:45 → DEN 10:01UA 1758	1h 26m Denver	DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644	8h 24m	96%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON