Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2646 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 2646 EWR 06:30 → PHX 08:42 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2340 EWR 19:30 → PHX 21:48 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2646 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	PHX 08:42	9%	3%	0.9%	94%
AA 1282 American Flight history →	EWR 07:15	PHX 09:28	16%	5%	1.2%	86%
AA 2825 American Flight history →	EWR 10:55	PHX 13:17	19%	7%	0.9%	77%
UA 370 United Flight history →	EWR 13:05	PHX 15:20	19%	7%	0.7%	97%worse than usual
UA 1289 United	EWR 10:18	PHX 12:48	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 2321 United	EWR 20:41	PHX 23:03	35%	13%	0.7%	no record
UA 676 United	EWR 18:23	PHX 20:50	35%	16%	0.7%	no record
UA 2612 United	EWR 18:40	PHX 20:52	37%	16%	0.7%	no record
AA 2340 American	EWR 19:30	PHX 21:48	38%	17%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 29m Dulles	IAD 08:51 → PHX 10:40UA 709	7h 40m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	7h 28m	96%	86%
United Details →	EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670	1h 05m Denver	DEN 09:50 → PHX 10:55UA 1782	7h 25m	94%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON