Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 3666 at 14:06 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day YX 3666 EWR 14:06 → PIT 15:40 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 3403 EWR 19:29 → PIT 21:06 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3666 Republic	EWR 14:06	PIT 15:40	17%	4%	1.4%	no record
UA 3591 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:00	PIT 17:37	20%	6%	1.7%	84%
YX 3667 Republic	EWR 20:19	PIT 22:02	26%	8%	1.8%	no record
YX 3469 Republic	EWR 17:37	PIT 19:11	29%	9%	1.8%	no record
UA 3403 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 19:29	PIT 21:06	30%	8%	1.8%	82%worse than usual
UA 4396 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 13:05	PIT 14:35	17%	12%	4.8%	83%
UA 4390 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 09:15	PIT 10:45	18%	8%	0.0%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON