Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 3665 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 3665 EWR 07:45 → PWM 09:11 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest YX 3573 EWR 19:11 → PWM 20:49 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3665 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 07:45	PWM 09:11	10%	2%	2.2%	98%
UA 3685 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 11:59	PWM 13:25	14%	3%	1.2%	93%
YX 3573 Republic	EWR 19:11	PWM 20:49	26%	7%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON