tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, YX 3649 at 16:53, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3649 Republic EWR 16:53 ROC 18:23 19% 6% 2.6% no record
UA 4586 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 16:57 ROC 18:27 33% 20% 14.3% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 3h 17m Charlotte CLT 10:14 → ROC 12:14AA 2742 7h 14m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366 1h 03m Dulles IAD 08:25 → ROC 09:52UA 4615 · flown by GoJet 3h 52m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 09:23 → ROC 11:31DL 2511 5h 31m 95% 84%
JetBlueDetails → EWR 06:02 → MCO 08:39B6 927 2h 02m Orlando MCO 10:41 → ROC 13:28B6 1042 7h 26m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15AA 3185 52m Chicago ORD 08:07 → ROC 10:50AA 4104 · flown by Envoy 5h 20m 92% 78%
DeltaDetails → EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → ROC 17:20DL 2047 6h 49m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → EWR 09:20 → ORD 11:04UA 2290 2h 51m Chicago ORD 13:55 → ROC 16:45UA 1239 7h 25m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566 2h 42m Detroit DTW 14:25 → ROC 15:48DL 5211 · flown by Endeavor 5h 53m 99% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON